Australian beef has replaced U.S. supply in China since Donald Trump returned to the White House, funnelling hundreds of millions of dollars that have in previous years gone to the U.S. cattle industry into Australian pockets.
U.S. shipments to China, worth around $120 million a month, collapsed after Beijing in March allowed permits to expire at hundreds of American meat facilities and as Trump unleashed a tit-for-tat tariff war.
Other U.S. farm exports to China, the world’s biggest food importer, have also suffered since Trump retook power. On soybeans alone, U.S. farmers have lost out on shipments worth billions of dollars during the current harvest season.
Missed a big one.
The U.S. is mostly a net importer of beef. The herd size normally does not satisfy the market and it requires significant imports to make up the difference.
The U.S. herd size is cyclical and historically relatively easy to predict. So producers/exporters/importers had a good guess roughly a year or more in advanced when prices would climb or fall.
https://www.ers.usda.gov/topics/animal-products/cattle-beef/sector-at-a-glance
Toss in some dumbass who fucks up trade with tariffs and the exporting counties can no longer predict the market. Then TACO happens or doesn’t happen at random. Uncertainty in the market trend means that producers are unwilling to increase their herd size to adapt, anywhere.
The safest bet is to sell down their herd size at the high prices to capture the margin now. Then maintain a smaller herd for the duration of the uncertainty.
Dairy farmers are pretty much the only ones that are doing quite well right now. Feed inputs are low, butcher prices for their cows is high and sexed semen means they can cross 1/2 their herd with beef breeds to maximize their profit. Day old 1/2 bred calf’s are selling for astronomical prices right now. Selling off their herd and retiring early is a viable option right now as well.