The reality is that reliable backports of security fixes is expensive (partly because backports are hard in general). The older a distribution version is, generally the more work is required. To generalize somewhat, this work does not get done for free; someone has to pay for it.
People using Linux distributions have for years been in the fortunate position that companies with money were willing to fund a lot of painstaking work and then make the result available for free. One of the artifacts of this was free distributions with long support periods. My view is that this supply of corporate money is in the process of drying up, and with it will go that free long term support. This won’t be a pleasant process.
I could be wrong, but isn’t the entire debian stable tree maintained for years via open source contributions? Sure the redhat downstreams might be on their own, but there’s plenty of non-commercial distros that keep up to date.
According to Debian Releases
Debian announces its new stable release on a regular basis. Users can expect 3 years of full support for each release and 2 years of extra LTS support.
So about 5 years, though it is not clear how well this works in practice (how much is actually updated and how well supported).
From the Debian Wiki - LTS:
Companies using Debian who benefit from this project are encouraged to either help directly or contribute financially. The number of properly supported packages depends directly on the level of support that the LTS team receives.
I think this is sort of what the article is pointing towards… long-term support really depends on commercial support, as volunteers are more likely to work on the current or more recent thing than go back and backport or update older things. If corporate funding dries up (which it appears to be doing), then while volunteers will still contribute some to long-term linux distributions, it won’t be at the same level it currently is with commercial support.
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The rationale for using LTS distros is being eroded by widespread adoption of containers and approaches like flatpak and nix. Applications and services are becoming less dependent on any single distro and instead just require a skeleton core system that is easier to keep up to date. Coupled with the increased cost needed to maintain security backports we are getting to a point where it’s less risky for companies to use bleeding edge over stable.
widespread adoption of containers and approaches like flatpak and nix
And it’s about flippin time. Despite predating app stores by decades, the Linux package systems have been surprisingly conservative in their approach.
The outdated and hardcoded file hierarchy system combined with the rigid package file management systems have ossified to a ridiculous degree.
It’s actually telling that Linux packaging systems had to be circumvented with third party approaches like snap, flatpak, appimage etc. — because for the longest time they couldn’t handle stuff like having two versions of the same package installed at the same time, or solving old dependencies, or system downgrades, or recovery etc.
Linux had advanced stuff like overlayfs 20 years ago but did not use any of it for packages. But we have 20 different solutions for init.
Linux can work without big and bloated components. Companies funded development of components that are replaceable by simpler and easy to maintain ones.
