There hasn’t been much conscription on the Russian side (though recently that’s changing) because conscription is tremendously politically unpopular, most people joined the war on that side by willingly signing a contract because they’re offering huge sums of money compared to what Russian people outside of the biggest cities can make.
It’s a popular place for people in many of the poorer former Soviet republics to work in since Russia had a larger economy and more opportunities for higher paying jobs than back in their home countries, knowledge of Russian is widespread with historical Soviet influence/continuing Russian influence, diasporas are already there as a support network since it used to be one country and it was not especially restrictive to go over and work.
That said Russia’s far right has been venomous about this since their Islamophobia doesn’t mix well with a bunch of Muslim people arriving from Central Asia. Groups like Russian Community have been attacking mosques, people who look foreign, stealing from them etc. and as the state is sort of scraping the barrel on bodies to send to Ukraine in some communities have far right militias actually partner with the police and work in their operations with the name of establishing “order”.
This law in the post and tightening of visas is red meat to those sorts of far-right factions in exchange for their continued support.
See: how Germany was treated post WWI.
The reparations scheme in the Treaty of Versialles had a far worse worse bark than the bite. Over 60% of the amount requested were C bonds that charged no interest and had no schedule for payment and so were basically a fiction designed to make the peace look better for Entente civilians furious at Germany over the war but without excessively burdening Germany. The A and B bonds were less than what Germany had offered to pay up.
However, Germany almost immediately set about not paying the payments it agreed to nor making up for it in shipping out goods like coal to France which was a flexibility that was permitted to make payment easier for Germany. That caused a crisis so they actually offered to pay Germany for each shipmint of coal to France to make it easier for them to keep paying… and they STILL continued to default on their obligations dozens of times even as the coal quotas were lowered. France and Belgium got fed up with this since much of their richest land had been turned into a moonscape by the war, they were in economic crisis that the reparations they were not receiving could help with, and Germany appeared to be acting in bad faith on meeting its obligations, so they launched the occupation of the Ruhr to secure the resources to pay off the German reparations manually since Germany wasn’t contributing as had been threatened earlier.
This was not an especially great economic salve because the cost of the occupation ate up most of the reparations they got. In the meantime, this incensed Germans and the government had the Germans in the Ruhr strike and largely refuse to work for the foreigners. They needed money to keep not working, so the government paid them more and more paper marks to just sit on their butts. Churning out a huge amount of money to go to non-productive ends after already having a policy of spending crazy amounts of paper marks to secure gold-backed currency and paying the massive debt owed to German people (the German war effort in WWI was financed by debt rather than more taxes) led to hyperinflation which devastated the German economy and also made the internal debts more or less irrelevant at the expense of all the Germans who thought they’d be seeing a return on those loans to the government. Though, the gold based foreign debt not so much.
This led to a lot of political instability in Germany which frightened the US because if Germany had a coup from the political extremes then they might decide to default on their debts entirely which would be really bad because that could destabilize France and the UK which had massively borrowed from the US. So the they got together with the Dawes Plan to end the occupation and get Germany massive amount of loans which were used to stabilize the currency and provide the capital to establish incredibly productive industry, thereby boosting Germany’s economy significantly such that it had more ability to pay reparations and loosening tensions so that they were more willing to and for the first time they were consistently meeting the payments.
Five years later however they were already looking to get it further lowered and that succeeded with the Young Plan which devolved other foreign control of aspects of the German economy to Germany while reducing payments and getting Germany more loans. It would have gone further but while hammering it out an unprecedented financial crisis struck America. The contagion from that spread in quick order to Germany which had significant American debts.
The economic crisis led to political crisis and Germany opted to refuse to pay reparations at all, which also locked it out of being able to borrow from anyone so that was kind of a shot in the foot. America stepped in and made the Hoover Moratorium where Germany didn’t have to pay any reparations for a year. That was considered not enough either and a new conference was called at Lausanne where Germany sought total end of reparations. The reparations were reduced to a paltry 3 billion marks (miniscule compared to the advertised total at the start of the Treaty of Versailles of 132 billion marks) but the Treaty of Lausanne wasn’t fully agreed on so in that vague realm Germany kept paying interest but not reparations based on the Young Plan before Hitler scrapped paying anything at all. It would take another world war for Germant to start paying money again.
Really the Germans were in a material sense better off for it because they got a huge amount of productive industry created off of American loans, consistently stiffed the UK and especially France who were both burdened by their debts to the US and did not get the expected relief from reparations in the intervening years, and America didn’t really make off well in the end from the massive loans to most everyone either because essentially everyone in Europe defaulted on those loans by the early 30s.
It’s kind of common now for people to think Turkey and Azerbaijan are in lockstep agreement but that’s not necessarily always the case, particularly on the subject of Israel. Turkey views Israel as having committed genocide in Gaza but Azerbaijan does not, they do not have the same policy stance.
This difference is in part because Erdogan is a relatively religious leader who has cultivated Palestinian ties for years; it’s in his interest to make statements against Israel for his beliefs, the sentiment at home, and for his cultivated connections in the Islamic world who are convinced at this point as well, so he has all the reason in the world to openly call out Israel for genocide. Aliyev on the other hand is secular to the point of actually cracking down on undesired religious expression (ex. Iranian preaching in Azerbaijan or the Gulen movement back when Erdogan was pushing it) and his country has a formerly Soviet population that is mostly irreligious so in practice he has domestic flexibility to even align with Israel as he sees fit. So Aliyev instead has promoted relations with Israel since he was opposed to their common enemy of Iran anyway and that allowed him access to military equipment and economic benefits since back in a time where Azerbaijan was militarily very behind the combined forces of Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh. Among the benefits of the partnership were Harop drones (loitering munitions) that Azerbaijan used to systematically demolish thoroughly fortified and entrenched Armenian forces from the air.
Actually we have cables from folks speaking with Aliyev on Wikileaks where he is documented as directly criticizing Erdogan (very frequent in general in the cables of that time since Aliyev thought he was a religious nutjob) on his foreign policy regarding Israel.
https://wikileaks.org/plusd/cables/10BAKU134_a.html
BAKU 00000134 004 OF 004
- © Unprompted by U/S Burns, Aliyev spelled out the reasons Azerbaijan decided to sell gas to Russia last year, noting that "“Moscow had asked” and offered a good price for gas that was surplus anyway. But the real reason, Aliyev confided, was that the sale illustrated to “our Turkish friends” that they will not be allowed to create a gas distribution hub. "Aliyev made clear his distaste for the Erdogan government in Turkey, underscoring the “naivete” of their foreign policy and the failure of their initiatives, including the loss of support for Turkey among traditional international friends because of Ankara,s hostility to Israel. He noted that in his view, there had never been any merit to the notion of a “moderate Islamist” government in Turkey, and that Erdogan,s insistence on promoting Hamas and Gaza ) when other Arab countries were notably silent on these issues ) had brought Turkey no benefits.
https://wikileaks.org/plusd/cables/09BAKU52_a.html
- © The President complained that the current Turkish Government is moving toward political Islam and away from secular democracy. He said that he could not understand Erdogan’s harsh attacks on Israel with respect to Gaza in light of Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Jordan remaining silent. He noted that Turkey was in essence supporting pro-Iranian forces by siding with Hamas. “This will ruin everything that Turkey has built in its relations with Israel, including excellent economic, military and intelligence cooperation . . . With Turkey having this position, it is difficult for us to continue our joint foreign policy,” the President commented.
So the matter of whether or not Israel committed genocide is actually an area where there is a fair amount of daylight between Turkey and Azerbaijan.
Trump definitely doesn’t care. That said, this can potentially present problems with Congress because there are many congressmen on the Republican side who would be split between their political instincts for deferring to Trump who wants this to happen and for backing Israel which absolutely does not. There’s a bipartisan letter written against this from people from people in like the Hellenic Israel Alliance Caucus and so on.
Since it seems like the Turkish side is sending out communications that they’re open to getting rid of it and that would make things politically easier in DC I would think it more likely than not that the S-400 moves onto somewhere else. I hardly think the challenge in Congress is insurmountable in the face of Trump’s power if Turkey were to absolutely refuse to get rid of the S-400 but it’s not even being used so I don’t see why Turkey would not take the chance to offload a liability, look reasonable and buy brownie points for keeing the Trump admin’s life simple.
He had at max 25000 people under his personal control (and probably only a fraction of that). An actual full march on Moscow (a city of 13 million people located over 1000 km away) would have been beyond doomed unless a ton of people flipped to him very quickly including the logistics to keep them moving. Maybe it was hoped for but didn’t happen. Also, despite the potential for the Ukraine War to go in a terrible direction for Putin with this distraction from the Ukrainian offensive, at no point did Putin attempt to negotiate giving up Shoigu and Gerasimov (which Prigozhin had hoped for) and in fact he wouldn’t deign to speak to him at all. So he didn’t flip the forces he needed to win and the leverage he had for the alternate goal turned out to be useless.
He COULD have fought anyway but that would be essentially throwing away the lives of him and his men, bringing bloody civil war to Russia to no benefit, damaging the “special military operation” they had fought in, and probably end terribly for their extended families also… not a great legacy for nationalist types. So the option to surrender and set up shop in Belarus, while not likely to end well for Prigozhin, was at least a chance rather than certain death. And much better results for the other issues.
Dirty bombs are a meme weapon, they’re not really effective except for scaring people who don’t know that they’re not effective
Yeah Israel is very unhappy about the thought of the military technology they manufacture winding up in Turkey’s possession since they’re in increasingly opposed blocks right now. Greece isn’t happy either since it’s on that same side.
The S-400 is still with Turkey but some ideas are being floated around on what to do with it because it’s being cited as a legal impediment for getting Turkey back in on the F-35. Russia as you say is very happy to buy it back because their air defenses aren’t doing so hot. Turkey may not want to do that though because they favor Ukraine over Russia politically - an expansionist Russia is really bad news for Turkey. Another option is to sell it to some other party which would be better for Ukraine. However, they would need Russia to sign off on such a sale and that could present some difficulties. If they just unilaterally sell without Russia’s approval then that makes them look far less reliable to follow the terms in arms deals which could block them from getting nicer arms or make them far more expensive to buy upfront to price in such risks.
There can be demand destruction from high prices
I don’t think it’s just a matter of reacting to NATO expansion like those guys would have you think. Russia had already prevented Ukraine from joining NATO with the Crimea invasion (plus earlier Georgia) and successfully muddied the waters such that almost no one in the West even really cared that much. Trump’s antics were deteriorating relations such that Macron was publically calling NATO brain-dead. Nordstream 2 was soon to come online and bring new fissures between particularly Germany on one side and Poland and Ukraine on the other, since more bypass capability allowed Russia to pressure Ukraine and Poland with gas games without giving up on German cash. They were basically already winning as they were with NATO looking irrelevant more and more by the day, they were making tons of money with western Europe which was fed up with what they saw as petty eastern European disputes threatening stable gas supply, etc.
Invading Ukraine more seriously than they had been blew all that nice position up and put new urgency and energy into the alliance, scared Sweden and Finland into throwing their lot in with NATO, moved NATO borders much closer to Russia and made re-arming a far FAR more salient issue in EU countries while also getting a jillion sanctions slapped on Russia. And it’s not like those measures would have been unexpected unlike Ukraine actually being able to fight back surprisingly well. It’s a weird anti-NATO maneuver that’s practically designed in a lab to make NATO more relevant than it had been in decades.
Idk why people do this. Leaving aside Ukraine there’s also Russia to worry about.
Ex. American tankie Russell Bentley moved over to join the war in eastern Ukraine on Russia’s side, but Ukraine wasn’t what got him. As an “information warrior”, he was taking a video of the aftermath of a Ukrainian strike to make some propaganda about it. His own guys saw this suspicious character filming the site and declared him to be a spy helping with Ukrainian spotting despite his protests to the contrary that he was a ‘journalist’.
Dude was sexually abused, tortured to death by his own side (this particular group has been filmed hooking up field telephones to electrocute the genitals in its torture methods) and his body was blown up in a car with a TNT charge in an attempt to get rid of the evidence after realizing he was on their side after the fact.
For those who don’t know here is that city on a map although labeled as Al-Ubayyid (same name, different Latinization). As you can tell RSF is surrounding much of the city, though it’s a better situation than when they were totally cut off and under siege earlier. Still very unpleasant situation to be in as all these drones show.
Drones also aren’t only coming from RSF controlled areas in the east, unfortunately. The SAF caught drone attacks being launched on civilian and military targets in their capital of Khartoum coming from an airport in Ethiopia. Ethiopia has also had recent reporting some months back from Reuters of them establishing a secret base to train RSF fighters near the border with Sudan.
Actually, though you may look at the map above and think RSF is screwed due to having no access to the ocean to get supplies from the UAE, that thought would be incorrect. UAE money is very tempting and so almost all of Sudan’s neighbors (including Ethiopia, South Sudan, Central Africa Republic, Chad, and Haftar’s piece of Libya) other than Egypt and Eritrea are keeping the RSF’s supply chains intact through their own countries.
South Sudan is going further than that and backing the Sudan People’s Liberation Front - North (at least, the part of it that joined hands with Hemedti) as the SPLF’s efforts were what South Sudan sprang from. The SPLF-N and RSF have fought each other before but one part considers the SAF to be the bigger threat and joined up with RSF while the other faction did the opposite.
Rough neighborhood for the SAF outside of Egypt and Eritrea who are both terrified of an RSF led Sudan & Ethiopia partnership and so oppose it instead with their own military aid and assistance. Egypt because that combo could freely extort Egypt by using the Nile River as leverage, and Eritrea because Ethiopia has already been saber rattling about wanting to conquer a port from Eritrea anyway so the added fun of another neighbor potentially in on that scene is really not appealing.
His mom was (she was from Scotland where the national church is Presbyterian) and she took him to a PCUSA church in Queens while he was growing up. Whereas his dad having German background was a Lutheran. In a 2020 interview he said he had swapped to be non-denominational Christian now though.
Aw thanks, that’s kind of you to say. =) I am still relatively new to Lemmy and didn’t even know it was possible to make custom tags for users so I’d also like to say thanks for broadcasting out neat info!
That’s not PCUSA doing that? They’re not even in the same organization with each other. PCUSA is a part of the World Communion of Reformed Fellowships while that Uganda church you linked is with churches more like PCA in the competing far more conservative World Reformed Fellowship.
edit: for the other links, the Lord’s Resistance Army seems to be some religious mishmash that doesn’t even seem to be affiliated with any established denomination, like they’re not even claiming to be any kind of Presbyterian conservative or otherwise? And on the anti-Homosexuality Act that is opposed by PCUSA on their own website.
https://pcusa.org/sites/default/files/TheGlobalCrisisforPeopleWhoAreLGBTandTheirFamilies.pdf
https://pcusa.org/news-storytelling/news/2021/6/17/refugee-and-lgbtqia-lives-intersect-every-day
Will consider for the future but in all honesty probably forget
Can you point out or link for us what specifically PCUSA (and not some other conservative denomination) is doing that is bad in Uganda?
As an example is what I intended, as there are other right-leaning Presbyterian alternatives than PCA such as Orthodox Presbyterian Church and Bible Presbyterian Church and so on so forth so I didn’t want to spell out PCA as the only one.
This is a really really powerful development for defending territory but not as great for going on the offensive as drones can’t directly take and hold territory. To take territory you need ground troops and armored vehicles.
A concentrated group of people that can be taken out at once or an expensive vehicle are tempting priority targets for drones, and drones are more readily replaced than men or tanks… and both sides have them. So attempting to take large swathes of territory is most likely to make whoever is attempting to advance get punished since they have to put prime drone targets in drone range to make the attempt.
So most advances such as they are are being made by tiny groups of people or individuals who infiltrate into the gray zone/behind enemy lines and then secure themselves a hiding area to operate out of before maybe linking up for larger maneuvers. The situation doesn’t really lend itself to big movements in the front lines even with a ton of people dying. In a way it’s kind of reminiscent of how trench warfare and machine gunsmade defending territory very powerful and led to the western front being mostly deadlocked with offensives being insanely bloody until the tank was more well developed and brought more mobility back to the offense.
For the most part Ukraine is content now to target Russian logistics from a distance. If the Russian supply chain is in shambles that weakens Russian use of drones and artillery at the far edges of their reach which could enable offensive operations that aren’t quite as suicidal as they are now.