From which size is a country too big to operate as a single country? I think cultural identity is much more important than size, and the Chinese government has put a tremendous effort in culturally unifying the land with great success (and great cost; see Xinjiang, Tibet, Hong Kong, the relationship with Taiwan, loss of local languages and culture). I don’t see that disappearing anytime soon.

A civil war with a stalemate is of course possible (in fact it’s already the reality), but an USSR style collapse in many different countries is just not something I can see happen.

I’m the first one to hate on the CCP, but people have been saying that China is going to collapse anytime now for 20 years.

The demographics are a real problem, but nothing that will cause an immediate collapse. Housing, youth unemployment and inequality are real imminent issues, but the CCP has survived much worse and I think they will survive this as well.

Economical they have made some good bets, investing in solar and batteries, for that alone we should hope they don’t collapse, it would be a setback of several years or maybe decades.

I believe China will more go the way of Japan, stagnate but not collapse.

Honestly, I’ve used some pretty decent AI chatbots. They can help you with basic questions and contact you with a human for things that require it or if you ask for it. Chatbots that don’t let you talk to a human on the other hand, those are awful.

How are they planning on sending over any significant manpower and supplies across 2800km?

Rail? They border Russia and there’s a railroad over the border

That’s what I thought too, but according to Sabine Hossenfelder there actually is, we just choose not to speak about it. I don’t really know enough about quantum physics to make my own judgement.

Full price? Paying extra for someone to ruin your pants and their lungs you mean

Why?

No it’s not?

If you read the article you would have seen Linux is supported

Yes, just solar. Hydro is bigger now, but it doesn’t have the growing potential. Wind is currently also growing exponential, but I don’t see it doing that for 20 more years. And even if it does, it doesn’t really make a big difference since exponential + exponential is still exponential. If it grows as fast as solar that would mean we’re just a few years ahead of the curve.

Here you go, you’ll need numpy, scipy and matplotlib:

from scipy.optimize import curve_fit
from matplotlib import pyplot as plt

# 2010-2013 data from https://ourworldindata.org/renewable-energy [TWh]
y = np.array([32, 63, 97, 132, 198, 256, 328, 445, 575, 659, 853, 1055, 1323, 1629])
x = np.arange(0, len(y))

# function we expect the data to fit
fit_func = lambda x, a, b, c: a * np.exp2(b * x ) + c
popt, _ = curve_fit(fit_func, x, y, maxfev=5000)

fig, ax = plt.subplots()
ax.scatter(x + 2010, y, label="Data", color="b", linestyle=":")
ax.plot(x + 2010, fit_func(x, *popt), color="r", linewidth=3.0, linestyle="-", label='best fit curve: $y={0:.3f} * 2^{{{1:.3f}x}} + {2:.3f}$'.format(*popt))
plt.legend()
plt.show()

Here’s what I get, global solar energy generated doubles every ~3.5 (1/0.284) years.

That was just an excuse, they just couldn’t get the parts. Radar is back now.

Because it’s called Full Self Drive and Musk has said it will be able to drive without user intervention?

Exponential, it fits the curve very nicely. I can give you the python code if you want to. I got 2 decades for all energy usage, not only electricity, which is only one sixth of that.

I just took the numbers for the whole world, that’s easier to find and in the end the only thing that matters.

The next few years are going to be interesting in my opinion. If we can make efuels cheaper than fossil fuels (look up Prometheus Fuels and Terraform Industries), we’re going to jump even harder on solar and if production can keep up it will even grow faster.

I have to run out of the bathroom when my wife uses her Dyson hair dryer because it hurts my ears, and you’re telling me this is by design?!

The mistake you make is that you assume the law works the same in China as in countries that have rule of law. China doesn’t have rule of law, they have ‘rule by law’. The Communist Party isn’t just above the law, the law is a tool for them to use how they see fit. If you are undermining the Communist Party then that is by definition misinformation.

Remember, this is the same country where one day the minister of health aplauded a journalist’s effort to combat pollution with a documentary called under the dome, and the next day it was gone from the internet as if it never existed. Whenever they have internal issues they stir up some hatred for the USA or Japan, only to be forgotten somewhat later.

They took 1984 not as a warning, but as a manual

Then look at the total TWh from renewables, and rate it has been growing Y-o-Y and extrapolate until it reaches the number needed to eliminate fossil fuels.

You’ll find it will take decades to build enough renewable capacity to replace fossil fuel based electricity generation.

I get ~2 decades when I extrapolate these numbers (from 2010-2023) to get to 2022 total primary energy usage for solar alone.

Energy usage will grow as well, and keeping that growth is ambitious, but it the future doesn’t look that bleak too me if you look at it that way.

I’ve never had UHT milk go bad in less than a week. Longest I’ve had it in my fridge and passed the smell and taste check was over a month, but at that point I didn’t trust it anymore.

You guys don’t have UHT milk?

Didn’t machines at that time take mere seconds to boot?