Weird, I was pondering exactly this analogy earlier. Specifically astrology, but cold reading is a better fit for a conversation with an ‘AI’; astrology works well for one-off articles. Both dependent on the Forer Effect, of course.

Important piece, I think. Because this part is 100% true:

There are many examples of this easily found once you start doing the research. The mechanism is simple enough and already baked into people’s preconceptions of how readings work so many psychics accidentally develop the knack for it, meaning that they’re not just conning the person being read, they are also conning themselves.

This is Sam “I’m a stochastic parrot and so are you” Altman. He thinks his high tech magic 8-ball really does think just like human beings do. He’s not so much trying to persuade us that ‘AI’ has achieved our level so much as persuade us that we have always been on its level.

Maybe he is just 100% grifter and absolutely knows he is bullshitting. But I think he’s at least 50% conning himself.

Which is probably worse. True believers are so tiring.

It’s an incredibly powerful illusion. And no matter how often someone draws back the curtain, usually with a spectacularly nonsensical example of its complete inability to think, there will always be mini-Sams out there. Desperate to believe. Unwilling to think.