Copernicus Climate Change Service says results a ‘large and continuing shift’ in the climate

The world has baked for 12 consecutive months in temperatures 1.5C (2.7F) greater than their average before the fossil fuel era, new data shows.

Temperatures between July 2023 and June 2024 were the highest on record, scientists found, creating a year-long stretch in which the Earth was 1.64C hotter than in preindustrial times.

The findings do not mean world leaders have already failed to honour their promises to stop the planet heating 1.5C by the end of the century – a target that is measured in decadal averages rather than single years – but that scorching heat will have exposed more people to violent weather. A sustained rise in temperatures above this level also increases the risk of uncertain but catastrophic tipping points.

  • FiniteBanjo@lemmy.today
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    2 days ago

    One of the problems with these metrics is a lot of different authorities use different estimates of what the pre-industrial average is. One thing we can all agree on, though, is that temperatures are hitting record highs and global temperatures have far exceeded natural changes for anything ever recorded, and it’s not going to stop.

  • conditional_soup@lemm.ee
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    3 days ago

    If this doesn’t mean that we’ve failed the 1.5 C target, then what are the criteria for failure there?

    • barsoap@lemm.ee
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      3 days ago

      I mean, it depends. Sub-replacement birthrate means gerontocracy and you’re currently seeing where that is leading. Pensioners by and large aren’t great at changing things.

      World-wide population growth is going to stop naturally in the next couple of decades as the last big countries finish their demographic transition, after that there’s going to be at least a slight decrease and then stabilisation as industrialised countries figure out how to have replacement-level birthrates again. The earth certainly can sustain that many people indefinitely, with plenty of room to spare. Also at our living standards (minus cars plus public transit), and even with fewer working hours.

      If you don’t want to have kids fine don’t have kids but the climate argument is BS. Don’t think of it as producing a consumer, but producing a voter interested in the state of the earth 100 years from now.

      • jballs@sh.itjust.works
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        3 days ago

        Kurzgesagt had a good video about that recently that hit on those same points. Like you said, you don’t want a society of old people with few young people. Then they vote for short term solutions and don’t care about long term problems.

        I mean, that already happens now, but even more so.

      • zaphod@sopuli.xyz
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        1 day ago

        The chinese population peaked in 2021, they’re now shrinking and have a fertility rate of roughly 1.1 despite the abolition of the one-child policy.

      • freebee@sh.itjust.works
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        3 days ago

        I think the Chinese population is very much “under control” already with their state-capitalist system.

  • A_A@lemmy.world
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    3 days ago

    We are more than ever emitting CO2 and temperature will increase until a major drop in population.
    Still i am quite sure humanity will survive it.

    • ramble81@lemm.ee
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      3 days ago

      Humanity will likely survive. The earth will definitely survive. But in both cases, the question will be: What will it look like?

      • EnderWiggin@lemmy.world
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        3 days ago

        Probably something like the Bronze Era collapse, but with a lot more people and likely a rebound that leads to a slower industrial revolution involving renewable materials. I think the actual collapse will take a lot longer than people seem to think, on the order of the next 75 to 100 years. I think for some, it could happen rather quickly over the next 10-20 years, but for most, it’ll be a slow and meandering quality of life decline over several generations that is already under way. Recovery will take much longer on the order of 100 to 250 years. I am basing this guesstimate on absolutely zero scientific information whatsoever.

        • Esqplorer@lemmy.zip
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          3 days ago

          I really hope we can shift to a circular economy over the next 65 years as this happens and we can build what we need from the massive extractions from the earth made by our ancestors.

      • A_A@lemmy.world
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        3 days ago

        Very bad, for at least 100 years. Your guess is as accurate as mine.

  • AutoTL;DR@lemmings.worldB
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    3 days ago

    This is the best summary I could come up with:


    The world has baked for 12 consecutive months in temperatures 1.5C (2.7F) greater than their average before the fossil fuel era, new data shows.

    Temperatures between July 2023 and June 2024 were the highest on record, scientists found, creating a year-long stretch in which the Earth was 1.64C hotter than in preindustrial times.

    Copernicus, a scientific organisation that belongs to the EU’s space programme, uses billions of measurements from satellites, ships, aircraft and weather stations to track key climate metrics.

    Whether pumped out the chimney of a coal-burning power plant or ejected from the exhaust pipe of a passenger plane, each carbon molecule clogging the Earth’s atmosphere traps heat and warps weather.

    “This is not good news at all,” said Aditi Mukherji, a director at research institute CGIAR and co-author of the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report.

    François Gemenne, an IPCC author and director of the Hugo Observatory at the University of Liège, said the climate crisis is not a binary issue.


    The original article contains 592 words, the summary contains 165 words. Saved 72%. I’m a bot and I’m open source!

    • zaphod@sopuli.xyz
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      1 day ago

      Europe in general could end up very cold if the gulf stream collapses, which might happen due to climate change.

      • FelixCress@lemmy.world
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        1 day ago

        I don’t know about the rest of Europe, it is quite warm in the central Europe now. It seems to be something very unique to the UK. Summer here starts Wed afternoon in June and is usually gone by Sunday evening.

        • zaphod@sopuli.xyz
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          1 day ago

          At the moment, but where I live we had temperatures of around 15°C last week to a 30°C peak this week.

      • FelixCress@lemmy.world
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        2 days ago

        “Shittier” is the word I would use. It is 12 degrees outside now. And I wonder what idiots are downvoting my comment for simply stating facts.