Despite billions of dollars in additional weapons and security assistance that NATO announced this week, allied officials said Ukraine would not be ready to launch a dramatic counteroffensive or retake large swaths of territory from Russia until next year.
Donations of missiles, combat vehicles, ammunition and air defenses from the United States and European countries will take weeks, if not months, to reach the front lines.
Some of the newly committed weapons have not yet been bought or built.
You need over 3 attackers to counteract 1 defender today.
Any attack, especially in today’s always-connected, drone-scouted, satellite image war, will get counter-attacked / counter-bombarded by artillery, hampering the attacker and giving huge advantages to the defender.
Furthermore, well prepared landmines force attackers into performing tasks (ex: demining), which itself can be detected and reacted upon. (Ex: enemy tanks will always run single-file down a de-mined lane. You can take your time to position anti-tank Javelins, Stuga, or BONUS artillery given the obvious and predictable paths that landmines force).
Russia still outnumbers Ukraine. Having the Russians kill themselves over Ukrainian defenses is the best preparation, as it means there will be fewer defenders next year when Ukraine is ready to attack.
The only problem with the plan is that Russia might have been smart enough to defend and prepare instead. But Ukraine figured out the politics too well (ex: Russia clearly wants Donestk and Luhansk regions this much, and are willing to pay for it in blood). So Ukraine can just sit, defend, and deny Russian control over these regions. Leading to a political loss for Putin while still not having to deal with today’s defense-advantaged technology.
Except that as an attacker you can choose where to attack and prepare to be there faster than the defenders can get people there. so you can attack with 30 where they only have 5 defenders and be gone before reenforcements arrive since they don’t know where you will attack until you start.
military expert tell me the 3:1 ratio comes with a lot of asterisks and ukrain knows those as well.
Satellites, Drones, and Landmines.
Both powers effectively have a Space program. I dunno what intelligence USA is sharing with Ukraine but surely USA’s satellites are part of the deal. Russia also has a space program and can similarly spy on movements from space.
Drones can see troop movements long before they reach the front.
For all other problems, you have landmines. Which slow down attacks and force them to be in single-file behind a landmine clearing machine. Spoiler alert: the attack will follow the path of the landmine clearing machine. Just let the machine finish and wait for the obvious attack, then ambush them.
The issue early in the war was that Ukraine didn’t have sufficient mechanized forces and a lot of Ukrainian fighting was done on foot (or if they were lucky: out of a Toyota pickup truck). Then in 2023, NATO provided significant numbers of tanks, M2 Bradleys and other equipment allowing for maneuver warfare and maneuver defenses.
As long as the Ukrainian defense stays watchful with Satellites, Drones, and Landmines, they always will meet the enemy in an advantage. That’s why the lines are so static. The problem also happened when Russia was on defense and Ukraine was on offense: Ukraine was unable to breakthrough because Russia could just copy this easy defensive strategy.
3-to-1 ratio was needed BEFORE Ukrainian war began. It has become abundantly clear that the new technological weapons have made the ratio worse. There’s some areas where Ukrainian defense can hold at 6-to-1 odds or even 10-to-1 odds. I don’t know what the new generals think of the new math, but everyone agrees that defense is king right now.